‘A MATTER OF WEEKS’: Secretary of State Antony Blinken says if Iran doesn’t quickly return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear agreement, it could produce enough fissile material — the basic building block of nuclear weapons — to build a bomb “in a matter of weeks.”
“Now, the fissile material is one thing. Having a weapon that they can actually detonate and use is another. And so there’s a timeline that’s probably different for that,” Blinken told Andrea Mitchell in an interview on MSNBC. “But the bottom line is they are getting closer to the point where they would be either a threshold nuclear power, or actually a nuclear power.”
Blinken said he has yet to see “the actual intelligence yet,” and is basing his comments on “what’s been publicly reported,” which is that Iran is a few months away from producing bomb-grade fissile material. “So that’s a real problem, and it’s a problem that could get more acute, because if Iran continues to lift some of these restraints imposed by the agreement, that could get down to a matter of weeks,” Blinken said.
YOU GO FIRST: Each side wants the other to go first. Blinken says that if Tehran returns to compliance with its obligations under the agreement, the U.S. would do the same thing. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif argues it’s the U.S., which under President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement, that has to make the first step.
“If we are away from the strict limitations of the nuclear agreement, it’s because the United States tried to impose a full economic war on Iran,” Zarif told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour in an interview that aired Monday. “Now, it stops that, we will go back into full compliance.”
Zarif insisted Iran could return to strict limits in uranium enrichment “in less than a day,” and that other violations of the agreement could be reversed in “a few days or weeks.”
“It won’t take any longer than it would take the United States to implement executive orders that are necessary to put Iran’s oil, banking, transportation, and other areas that President Trump violated back into operation,” he said.
THE MATTER OF MISSILES: Blinken says the position of the Biden administration is that once Iran is again constrained under the nuclear agreement, the U.S. and its allies can focus on the other big threat, Iran’s missile program, which was not covered under the original agreement.
“We’d once again be on the same side with our allies and partners, who were very distressed at us pulling out of the agreement. We would work with them to get something that is longer and stronger,” Blinken said. “We have to make sure that whether it’s part of a new agreement, whether it’s in parallel with a new agreement, that we are contending with that challenge that Iran poses.”
Zarif is insistent that there will be no changes to the original agreement. “As part of the nuclear negotiations, Iran accepted five- and eight-year limitations on defense and missile procurements respectively. The bargains — and indeed sacrifices — we made to secure the deal cannot be undone; not now, not ever,” he wrote in an op-ed last month in Foreign Affairs. “There cannot be any renegotiations. The United States cannot insist that ‘what’s mine is mine and what’s yours is negotiable’ and expect to have its way with Iran.”
A POINTED REMINDER: As if to underscore Iran’s progress in growing its missile arsenal, Iranian state TV aired the launch of a solid-liquid-fueled rocket said to be capable of carrying a satellite, which reportedly was able to reach a height of 300 miles.
The rocket, or satellite-launch vehicle, has been dubbed “Zuljanah” for the horse of Imam Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad.
“Despite all the talk of [Iran deal] reentry in Washington, Tehran has continued to grow its missile arsenal, which is the region’s largest,” says Behnam Ben Taleblu, an expert on Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile capabilities with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies.
“The Zuljanah is a composite-fueled SLV, meaning both solid and liquid propellant engines can be found in this 3-stage platform. A fully functional solid-propellant SLV means a more battlefield ready projectile, should Tehran pursue that course,” Taleblu says. “The launch of the Zuljanah SLV is therefore a major step forward for Tehran’s long-range strike capabilities.”
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Victor I. Nava. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: The Senate Armed Services Committee this morning holds a confirmation hearing for Kathleen Hicks to be deputy defense secretary. If her nomination is approved, Hicks would become the first woman to be confirmed by the Senate for the second-highest position at the Pentagon. 9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen.
But there was also another glass ceiling breaker before, albeit on an acting basis. From Dec. 3, 2013, until May 1, 2014, when Robert Work was confirmed as deputy, Christine Fox served as the acting No. 2. During those five months, she was the highest-ranking woman ever to serve in the Defense Department, according to Chip Unruh, press secretary to incoming Armed Services Committee chairman Jack Reed.
Reed will not be chairing today’s hearing because the power-sharing agreement worked out between Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has not yet been finalized.
SPEAKING OF McCONNELL: The Republican leader broke his silence on the disturbing beliefs of newly elected Georgia QAnon supporter Marjorie Taylor Greene, who, among other things, has expressed doubt about whether a plane hijacked by terrorists struck the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001.
(I was in the Pentagon on that day. I photographed wreckage of the plane with American Airlines markings. I know a plane hit the Pentagon.)
“Loony lies and conspiracy theories are cancer for the Republican Party and our country,” McConnell said in a statement last night. “Somebody who’s suggested that perhaps no airplane hit the Pentagon on 9/11, that horrifying school shootings were pre-staged, and that the Clintons crashed JFK Jr.’s airplane is not living in reality. This has nothing to do with the challenges facing American families or the robust debates on substance that can strengthen our party.”
TWO CHIEFS, ONE VIEW: OUT WITH THE OLD, IN WITH THE NEW: Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger have teamed up for an op-ed in today’s Washington Post warning that big changes are needed in the Pentagon’s budget to counter a world of fast-changing threats.
“The current framework is unbalanced and strongly biases spending on the legacy equipment we possess today, much of which was designed in the 1980s and 1990s. While these legacy capabilities may have been instrumental in deterring conflict and winning battles in an earlier era, they no longer provide an edge over competitors,” the two members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff write.
The four-star generals advocate shifting funds to invest in hypersonic weapons; AI-enabled remotely piloted aircraft; long-range penetrating strike; joint all-domain command and control; unmanned, low-cost, expendable ground, surface, and air vehicles; long-range mobile ground-launched missiles; and better integrated air and missile defenses.
“To be clear, we do not suggest merely cutting funds for near-term readiness and legacy capacity, but rather redirecting savings toward transformative modernization as part of our proposed new readiness framework,” Brown and Berger argue. “Americans understandably expect their Air Force and Marine Corps to be ready to defend the nation — both today and in the future. Unfortunately, a preoccupation with today’s crises is putting at risk preparations for future challenges. This must end. It is time to usher in a new understanding of what it means to be ‘ready’ in an era of renewed competition. We have a unique, but limited, window of opportunity. The time to act is now.”
TALIBAN GAINS, ELECTION FRAUD IN AFGHANISTAN: The Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, also known as SIGAR, is out with two reports as part of its watchdog role in reviewing operations in Afghanistan.
In its 50th quarterly report to Congress, the independent inspectors note that while “enemy-initiated attacks” were slightly lower overall in Afghanistan between October and December, attacks in the Afghan capital Kabul were higher.
“Key trends in the Taliban’s violent activity this quarter include increased attacks in Kabul City; an uptick in targeted assassinations of Afghan government officials, civil-society leaders, and journalists; and intensified efforts of pro-government forces against Taliban strongholds in Helmand and Kandahar Provinces,” the SIGAR report found.
It also notes that 200 checkpoints manned by the Afghan National Army’s 205th Corps in Kandahar Province were abandoned to the Taliban in December, which resulted in the Taliban fighters gaining a significant cache of government weapons and ammunition. “A lack of ANDSF cooperation, 205th Corps personnel shortfalls, adversarial relationships between 205th Corps soldiers and Kandahar citizens, and the lack of adequate fuel and personnel reserves for the 205th Corps checkpoints contributed to the collapse,” the report said.
A separate “lessons learned” report on Afghan elections concludes America’s return on investment supporting Afghanistan’s electoral process “has been poor.”
“Over nearly two decades the international community has spent at least $1.2 billion — including at least $620 million contributed by the U.S. government — supporting Afghanistan’s electoral process, including seven separate elections,” the report says.
“Afghan elections are regularly subject to fraud and manipulation through bribes, threats, or both. It is difficult to detect and prove fraud, and even harder to reduce it. Anti-fraud measures are often co-opted to perpetrate more fraud, and even successful fraud mitigation can end up suppressing legitimate votes, sometimes in ways that favor one group over another. Fraud is an ever-evolving target that cannot be eliminated, only reduced.”
RETHINKING YEMEN: Among the 11th-hour actions taken by the previous administration during Trump’s waning weeks in office was the designation of Houthis rebels in Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization.
In his MSNBC interview, Blinken indicated he may reverse that decision. “I have deep concerns about that,” Blinken said. “The president has said that we will stop our support for the Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen, but we also have to step up our ability to get humanitarian assistance to people in Yemen who are suffering terribly. Eighty percent of them live under Houthi control. We want to make sure that anything we do does not make it more difficult to get humanitarian assistance to the people of Yemen.”
Blinken said the designation was one of several questionable actions taken “in the very last days of the administration, steps it could have taken presumably over four years that it took in the last, basically, four weeks.” “We’re looking at all of them,” Blinken said.
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: ‘There are no good guys’: US responds to Myanmar crisis haunted by Rohingya atrocities
Washington Examiner: Antony Blinken endorses refugee status in US for Hong Kong dissidents
Washington Examiner: Despite unclear threat, National Guard protects Capitol in snowy conditions
Washington Examiner: Trump counterintelligence chief warns China is trying to acquire American DNA and health data
Washington Post: Op-Ed: Charles Q. Brown Jr. and David H. Berger: The U.S. Military Must Redefine ‘Readiness
Washington Times: U.S. Urged To Prepare For Nuclear Deterrence
The Drive: Flood Of Chinese Aircraft South Of Taiwan Continues Days After Mock Attack Runs On U.S. Carrier
Naval News: First Image Of China’s New Nuclear Submarine Under Construction
NBC: House Democrat Demands U.S. Military Screen Troops’ Social Media For Links To Extremist Groups
Defense News: A Long To-Do List Awaits Biden’s Deputy Defense Secretary Nominee
Reuters: U.S. Senate Leader Schumer Calls For Response To Myanmar Coup
Washington Post: Myanmar Coup Is A Test For Biden And U.S. Role As Advocate For Democracy
AP: Pakistan orders man acquitted in Pearl murder off death row
Bloomberg: Air Force Holds Back $336 Million on Flawed Boeing Tanker System
Breaking Defense: Pentagon’s Hypersonics Director Rebuts The Critics
19fortyfive.com: Will The U.S. Army Buy Israel’s Spike Anti-Tank Missile?
19fortyfive.com: Navy Warships Could Soon Be Armed With Laser Weapons
Task & Purpose: Russian Fighter Jet Buzzes USS Donald Cook In The Black Sea
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Addressing America, Yang Jiechi offers more Chinese Communist lies
Calendar
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 2
9 a.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion on challenges the Air Force anticipates in the coming year, with Air Force Lt. Gen. Mary O’Brien, deputy chief of staff for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and cyber effects operations. https://www.insaonline.org/event
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing for Kathleen Hicks to be deputy defense secretary. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:45 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference, with Thomas Harker, acting assistant navy secretary for research, development and acquisition, delivering remarks on “Building Tomorrow’s Navy and Marine Corps;” and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger delivers remarks on “Distributed Maritime Operations and Marine Expeditionary Operations.” https://www.ndia.org/events/2021/2/2/2021-virtual-expeditionary-warfare-conference
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “U.S. Navy: Setting the Theater in the Arctic,” with Navy Adm. Robert Burke, commander of U.S. Naval Forces Europe, U.S. Naval Forces Africa, and Allied Joint Forces Command Naples https://www.csis.org/events/online-event
11:50 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association Virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference, with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. Full agenda at: https://www.ndia.org/-/media/sites/ndia/meetings-and-events
12 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar with French President Emmanuel Macron on Europe and transatlantic relations. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
2 p.m. — Brookings Institution webcast: “International Security Challenges and Solutions for the Road Ahead,” with Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Project on International Order and Strategy; Lindsey Ford, fellow in the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies; David Dollar, senior fellow in the Brookings China Center; Vanda Felbab-Brown, director of the Brookings Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors; and Michael O’Hanlon, co-director of the Brookings Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology. https://www.brookings.edu/events
3 p.m. — Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee markup to consider committee rules and budget for the 117th Congress; and to vote on the nomination of Denis McDonough to be Veterans Affairs secretary. http://veterans.senate.gov
7 p.m. — Air Force Association webinar: “Air and Space Warfighters in Action,” with Air Force Lt. Gen. Scott Pleus, deputy commander of U.S. Forces Korea; and Air Force Sgt. Philip Hudson, command chief master sergeant of Seventh Air Force. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 3
9:45 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference, with Vice Adm. William Galinis, commander of Naval Sea Systems Command, delivering remarks on “Designing the Next Generation Surface and Amphibious Combatant: Capabilities Challenges and Opportunities.” https://www.ndia.org/events
10 a.m. — Association of Old Crows virtual discussion with Air Chief Marshal Stuart Peach, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, part of the Electromagnetic Spectrum Operations Leadership series. https://www.crows.org/general/custom
11 a.m. Rayburn 2118/WebEx — House Armed Services Committee meets to organize for the 117th Congress. http://www.armedservices.house.gov
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army Commander “Noon Report” webinar, with Gen. Christopher Cavoli, commanding general of U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command. Register at: https://info.ausa.org/e/784783/rg-AUSA-Noon-Report
1 p.m. — Space Foundation Space Symposium 365 virtual event with Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander, U.S. Space Command. https://spacesymposium365.org/agenda
2:30 p.m. — United States Institute of Peace webinar on the release of the final report of the Afghanistan Study Group, with former Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R-N.H., co-chair of the Afghanistan Study Group; former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford, co-chair of the Afghanistan Study Group; Nancy Lindborg, co-chair of the Afghanistan Study Group; and former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, chair of the USIP Board of Directors. https://www.usip.org/events/afghanistan-study-group
TBA — The Navy releases nearly 60 recommendations from the final report of Task Force One Navy, which for six months has been examining systemic racism and the needs of underserved communities in the ranks, with an eye toward dismantling barriers and equalizing professional development opportunities.
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 4
9 a.m. — Georgetown University webinar, “The North Korea Issue in U.S.-China Relations: New Directions Under the Biden Administration,” with Avery Goldstein, professor of global politics at the University of Pennsylvania: Jean Lee, director of the Wilson Center’s Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy; former National Security Council Korea Director Sydney Seiler; and Victor Cha, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. https://www.georgetown.edu/event
10 a.m. — House Homeland Security Committee hearing on “Examining the Domestic Terrorism Threat in the Wake of the Attack on the U.S. Capitol.” http://homeland.house.gov
10 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center virtual China Fellowship Conference, with panel discussions on “China’s Foreign Policy Along a Contested Periphery,” “The Belt and Road Initiative and Chinese Influence in Southeast Asia,” and “Is a New Cold War Inevitable: Chinese Intentions and the Role of Misperception.” https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event
12 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Exploring Innovative Measures to Map and Mitigate Illicit Weapon Transfers,” with Tim Michetti, investigative researcher on illicit weapon transfers; Rachel Stohl, vice president for conventional defense at the Stimson Center; Jay Bahadur, former coordinator of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia; and David Mortlock, nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 5
9 a.m. — Wilson Center Middle East Program conversation with Amb. James Jeffrey, chair of the Middle East Program, former ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition To Defeat ISIS, to discuss the Biden Administration’s Middle East policy. https://engage.wilsoncenter.org/a/media-briefing
9:30 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace webinar: “Nuclear Policy and Posture in the Biden Administration,” with former Defense Undersecretary Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner of WestExec Advisers; George Perkovich, vice president for studies at CEIP; and Pranay Vaddi, fellow in the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program. https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/02/05/nuclear-policy
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “The Afghan Peace Process: Progress or Peril?” with Afghanistan Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates Javid Ahmad; Bill Roggio, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies; and former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani, director for South and Central Asia at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events
12 p.m. — Georgetown University virtual book discussion on “The Return of Great Power Rivalry: Democracy versus Autocracy from the Ancient World to the U.S. and China,” with author Matthew Kroenig, deputy director of the Atlantic Council’s Center for Strategy and Security; former Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs Paula Dobriansky, senior fellow at Harvard University’s Future of Diplomacy Project; and Abraham Newman, director of the Georgetown Mortara Center for International Studies. https://www.georgetown.edu/event/book-talk
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 8
9:15 a.m. — The Middle East Institute MEI-CENTCOM Annual Conference, with keynote remarks by Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command, moderated by Amb. Gerald Feierstein, MEI senior vice president. https://www.mei.edu/events/keynote-address
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Loony lies and conspiracy theories are cancer for the Republican Party and our country. Somebody who’s suggested that perhaps no airplane hit the Pentagon on 9/11, that horrifying school shootings were pre-staged, and that the Clintons crashed JFK Jr.’s airplane is not living in reality. This has nothing to do with the challenges facing American families or the robust debates on substance that can strengthen our party.”
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s statement on Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.
