Iowa is back on the map as a top-tier battleground, with President Trump moving to rebuff surging presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden with early television advertising and campaign appearances by Vice President Mike Pence.
The Trump campaign has been on the air in Iowa since mid-May, and Pence has deployed there twice in five weeks, including Tuesday for lunch at a local diner with Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and then a tour of manufacturer Winnebago Industries. The attention comes amid fresh polling showing Trump and Biden in a dead heat for Iowa’s six Electoral College votes, revealing a threat to the president’s reelection Iowa Republicans take seriously.
“It just comes down to which side ends up a little more fired up than the other,” a senior Iowa Republican operative said.
In 2016, Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in Iowa by nearly 10 percentage points, carrying 94 of 99 counties, a remarkable outcome for what is a traditional battleground. Even after Democrats flipped two congressional districts in the midterm elections, the president’s overwhelming victory in the last White House contest suggested to many Republicans there was little to worry about this fall. But that has changed.
During a swing through Forest City, in rural north-central Iowa, Pence lunched at Sally’s, a restaurant he touted as reopening Tuesday for the first time since shuttering because of the coronavirus. Following a tour of nearby RV manufacturer Winnebago, the vice president delivered a wide-ranging stump speech to employees, praising Trump for his handling of the pandemic and efforts to revive the recession-stricken economy.
“It’s great to be back in the Hawkeye State to talk about this great American comeback,” Pence said. “Thanks to leadership of President Trump and Gov. Kim Reynolds and all the good people of the Hawkeye State, I’m proud to report to you, here and across America: We slowed the spread, we flattened the curve, we saved lives, and that’s why we’re opening up America again.”
Declining support for Trump prompted his campaign to purchase $420,000 in broadcast and cable television time in the Cedar Rapids, Des Moines, and Sioux City media markets — a sizable airing that ran from May 11 to June 10. Since Thursday, the Trump campaign has remained on broadcast television in Des Moines, Iowa’s dominant media market, with a $63,000 buy. The data was confirmed by Medium Buying, which tracks political advertising.
The investment was validated by the new Des Moines Register poll publicized on Monday. In the June 7-10 survey, Trump led Biden, the former vice president, by a statistically insignificant 44% to 43%. The president’s job approval was 45%. In the same poll, Republican Sen. Joni Ernst narrowly trailed Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield 46% to 43%.
That these high-profile contests are toss-ups is not surprising everyone. “The outlier was the 9.5% margin in 2016. There was a real antipathy to Hillary Clinton, and voters wanted an outsider,” said David Kochel, a Republican strategist in Iowa. “That mood wasn’t a wholesale change in partisanship. Just look at 2018. The GOP lost two congressional seats, and Gov. Reynolds won by 3 points. Iowa will be competitive again.”
Experienced Iowa Republicans say Trump’s big victory there nearly four years ago created unreasonable expectations for 2020. Reynolds’s close reelection in 2018 saw her win rural and exurban counties but lose in the suburbs. That’s what some Republican insiders are expecting in the Trump-Biden race. The question is whether the president can hold down his losses in the suburbs and block Biden from making inroads with voters elsewhere.
While worried about the recent trajectory of the campaign, these Republicans believe Trump is positioned to pull it off. Some are predicting Iowa might yet revert to a second-tier battleground if the president can put recent struggles behind him and shift the focus to Biden. The Trump campaign is expressing confidence, although recent investments suggest concern.
Campaign officials attribute their optimism to the strong vote for Trump in the Republican nominating caucuses in January — for which voters showed despite that he was a shoo-in. And, they cited one additional statistic: The Trump campaign’s data analytics operation has identified 81,184 Iowa voters who likely voted for Clinton in 2016 but are planning to vote for the president this November.
“Whether it be the ratification of the USMCA trade deal or the China phase one trade deal, Iowans know that President Trump’s tough-as-nails, get-the-job-done attitude is a win for them,” Trump campaign spokesman Ken Farnaso said. “In contrast, Biden’s support for job-killing NAFTA, China appeasement, and embrace of the Green New Deal would only plunge Iowa into depression.”
